With the latest developments in the country suggesting that Libya may soon be free of Colonel Gaddafi's dead hand, it is interesting to recall some of the would-be punditry put out by writers for the Guardian newspaper and Comment is Free regarding the prospects in the wake of Nato's intervention. As recently as 2 August a piece by Simon Jenkins had it that:
Nightly Britain bombs Tripoli. Bar death, what do we achieve?
Back in March Seumas Milne was saying:
But the campaign [Nato's in Libya] is already coming apart.
And in the same month the Guardian itself declared in one of its leader columns:
The moment the US intervenes militarily, even under a UN banner, Gaddafi gets what he wants.
Then there was also the piece, less than a month ago, headlined thus:
Gaddafi is stronger than ever in Libya
OK, so if you're a journalist writing about current events - just like if you're doing it as a blogger, really - then you'll be getting some things wrong. Everyone does sometimes. But it does no harm to remind people of when it happens, especially when there's a suspicion that their own predictions might be in harmony with what they want, or want not, to see happening.
Meanwhile, one may welcome the end of Gaddafi's regime if it comes about, without prematurely assuming that all will be well. Jeff Weintraub makes the necessary points:
At such moments, any temptations toward euphoria have to be restrained by a recognition that future developments are unpredictable and potentially unpleasant. Overthrowing oppressive and tyrannical regimes is often hard, but successfully reconstructing the societies that they've damaged, distorted, and poisoned by their rule is usually even harder. Still, a certain degree of satisfaction is appropriate. We seem to be witnessing the overthrow of an especially ugly and contemptible dictatorship, which over the decades piled up a lot of crimes at home and abroad, by a genuine popular uprising. That's something to be celebrated. The hangover will come later.
Brian Whitaker is hoping for the best. And so should everyone friendly to democratic self-government.
[More here.]