What will Obama do?

Gerard Baker argues that it would be unwise to expect much from Barack Obama in the way of any radical new initiative in the Middle East. Relative to what he calls America's 'unyielding pro-Israel line', there are hopes, Baker says, of a rebalancing of US policy once Obama takes office (whatever that rebalancing might mean). But, he goes on, it is 'hard to find anything in Mr Obama's public positions to support such a contention'; and though the president-elect has been close to advisers - like Zbigniew Brzezinski - who have been strongly critical of Israeli policy, this has to be weighed against the fact that he has given key foreign policy positions in his administration to people with 'more orthodox' views. Finally, Israel and Palestine won't be high on Obama's agenda, because he has more important challenges - such as the US economy, Iraq and Afghanistan.

I think Baker is wrong on two counts. First, for the incoming president the Israel-Palestine situation is as important as they get. The present hostilities have only highlighted - what must be clear to all close observers of the region - how dangerous that situation is becoming, with the threat it poses of an early regional conflagration in which not only Hamas, but also Iran and Hizbollah are involved, with an even greater loss of life (on all sides) than we saw in the Lebanese conflict in 2006 and are seeing in Gaza now. Second - though this is more speculative - I think Obama will recognize that he needs to do something to defuse the situation. To approach his term of office as if he could treat the present state of affairs in Israel-Palestine just like business as usual would not make an auspicious beginning to a presidency that has held out the promise of so much. And the only thing that could defuse the situation would be a vigorous initiative in the direction of a permanent peace settlement.