No decision for war

I understand from a friend in Washington that, contrary to the report in The Nation that's being going round the blogs, retired Colonel Sam Gardiner does not believe an 'October surprise' military strike on Iran is imminent. Gardiner, who has war-gamed air strikes on Iran independently of the Bush administration, thinks an attack is likely at some point before Bush leaves office; but it is still some way off. The Eisenhower carrier is going to the Gulf as part of normal rotation - to replace another big ship there that is due to return. Were it to stay on, this might be more of a sign of an early attack. With respect to the deployment orders The Nation quotes Gardiner as referring to, these are to do with minesweepers which could be used to clear the Straits of Hormuz in the event of an attack. If they are deployed, however, it would be as an exercise in deterring the Iranians from thinking they could close the Straits, rather than a sign of war. It's forward planning, rather than the preparation of an early strike.