Following the election

As Tony Blair announces the general election for 5 May, '[f]our opinion polls... suggest Labour's lead over the Tories has slipped'. See this post at UK Polling Report, where Anthony Wells has the details. Anthony writes: 'On the first day of the election campaign, it looks as though it's going to be very close (in shares of the vote, if not in seats...)'. See also Philip Cowley on why every poll tells its own story; the Guardian's Election 2005 blog; and Electoral Calculus (as mentioned previously). Their current prediction is a Labour majority of 114.