It's decision time everyone. It may be five days to go until the actual election, but here at normblog you only have two more days to get your predictions in for the big pundit event. I know - some of you are just being canny: wanting to leave it as late as possible so as to be able to take advantage of the most up-to-date information. But eventually you'll have to make up your mind. Would you want to miss out on the chance of participating in this exciting test of political foresight? Or want to miss out on the chance of winning it? You don't need to answer. I know you wouldn't.
Remember, it's not what you want to happen; it's what you think is going to happen. The RealClear Politics poll average currently stands at 2.0% in Bush's favour. One reader has asked me to disaggregate the Bush from the Kerry predictions submitted to me so far. Accordingly:
Bush-predictor average: Bush to win by a margin of 3.1% of the popular vote, with a majority of 45 electoral college votes.Don't let me down. Put in your prediction by tomorrow midnight.Kerry-predictor average: Kerry to win by a margin of 1.9% of the popular vote, with a majority of 19 electoral college votes.
Overall average prediction: Bush to win by a margin of 2.3% of the popular vote, with a majority of 35 electoral college votes.
[Error of calculation corrected - October 31.]