normblog pundit event

OK, friends, it's time for some action. Just under two weeks to the big day and I'm inviting your punditry. Who will win on November 2 and by what margin? Please send in your submissions. It's not about who you want to win; it's about what you predict is going to happen. A well-formed submission for this normblog presidential election pundit event must contain three elements:

1. The name of the winner
2. The percentage margin of victory in the popular vote
3. The size of the majority in electoral college votes

Thus, for example:

1. [Name of candidate]
2. 5.6%
3. 82

Or whatever. In deciding on the winner of this event - not of the election itself, but of the normblog competition - I will first eliminate all those who predicted the wrong guy, then see whose prediction was closest on the percentage margin of victory in the popular vote, then use the prediction of the electoral college majority as a tie-breaker. If it's still tied, then it's tied. If you win, you get honour - and I'll make a donation to a charity of your choice (within reason). I'll link to all blogged entries if you send me the URL. Closing date: midnight (local time) on the Friday before the election, October 29.

You can find the RealClear Politics poll average here. Below is a table I've put together from this site, with the relevant information from all the elections since the Second World War.

1948 * 04.5%, 114 * Truman/Dewey
1952 * 10.9%, 353 * Eisenhower/Stevenson
1956 * 15.4%, 384 * Eisenhower/Stevenson
1960 * 00.2%, 084 * Kennedy/Nixon
1964 * 22.6%, 434 * Johnson/Goldwater
1968 * 00.7%, 110 * Nixon/Humphrey
1972 * 23.2%, 503 * Nixon/McGovern
1976 * 02.1%, 057 * Carter/Ford
1980 * 09.7%, 440 * Reagan/Carter
1984 * 18.2%, 512 * Reagan/Mondale
1988 * 07.7%, 315 * Bush 1/Dukakis
1992 * 05.6%, 202 * Clinton/Bush 1
1996 * 08.5%, 220 * Clinton/Dole
2000 *-00.5%, 005 * Bush 2/Gore

[I need to re-check these figures. Apologies for any errors.]

Come on now. Have a go.