These two pieces from the last two days make some common points. Ferdinand Mount yesterday in the Sunday Times:
A six-year-old child would have seen it coming, it seems. Anyone but an arrogant klutz like George W Bush would have foreseen if not forestalled the attack on the twin towers. If the president had been serious about waging the war on terror, September 11, 2001 might have been just another cloudless autumn day in New York.
Such is the bizarre new indictment. Bush's critics on both sides of the Atlantic have been squinting down the hindsight this week. The wise-after-the-eventers have been out in force. According to Richard Clarke, the former White House counterterrorism chief, Bush was so obsessed with Iraq that he failed to take action against Osama Bin Laden despite repeated warnings from his intelligence experts. Condoleezza Rice appeared to think that Al-Qaeda was some sort of Middle Eastern hors d'oeuvre.
Funny, I do not recall any of those experts - or indeed any of Bush’s present critics - calling for a full-scale invasion of Afghanistan at the time, which is what it would have required to flush out the terrorists and decapitate their organisation.
The president is being denounced for not taking the kind of pre-emptive action in Afghanistan that he has been so passionately denounced for taking in Iraq. Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.
If Bush had abruptly ordered an invasion of Afghanistan without the cataclysmic provocation of September 11, he would have been excoriated for launching an illegal and immoral war against a desperately poor country which was still suffering from decades of conflict. As for United Nations approval, forget it.
.....
In Britain, Bush's harshest critics belong to a sort of Immobility Alliance. Those under its rainbow umbrella range from Tony Benn, Denis Healey and Clare Short on the left to Douglas Hurd, Chris Patten and Malcolm Rifkind among the old Tory Europhiles, supported by the flower of Britain’s commentariat.
Although there are differences of nuance and detail between them, they seem to share the view that any severe action against rogue or terrorist-sheltering states is liable to make matters worse.
Not everyone has graduated to Short's new belief that the Iraqis are actually worse off now than they were under Saddam Hussein. But in office and out of office, in the Balkans and in the Middle East, members of the Immobility Alliance usually claim that military intervention will be counterproductive and probably land us in a quagmire, and that sanctions are just as bad and may even cause greater suffering.
Instead, they recommend patient diplomacy and critical engagement to guide rogue states into more civilised ways. But this is a false alternative, since diplomatic engagement continues all the time (sometimes even when apparently interrupted by war). It is when diplomacy is getting nowhere or, worse, you find you have helped to arm a monster (as Europe did with Saddam before the Gulf wars) that other pressures have to be added.
More extraordinary still, some of the Immobilisers appear to regard even defensive precautions as useless. The latest fashion is to denounce Tony Blair and David Blunkett for being too alarmist. It is demeaning and demoralising, we are told, to spray the great British people with these hysterical warnings of Armageddon.
.....
Part of this querulous mood can be explained by the anti-Americanism which lingers here as in the rest of Europe like the gas from a leaky old cooker. But there is also a deeper unwillingness among the liberal intelligentsia to recognise how unprecedented, how perilous and how uncertain this struggle is. We have seen nothing like it. Our governments have made ghastly mistakes and will make many more. But anyone who thinks there is a comfortable escape route is making a bigger mistake.
Barbara Amiel today in the
Telegraph (registration required):
I can't see how any American government or individual, of either party, could have prevented the development of international terrorism. The question is not whether Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Bush actually knew about the murderous intentions of radical Islam or whether they took what they knew seriously, but what the public mood would have let them do about it before 9/11.
Not much, I wager. What administration could, before 9/11, have sent in American boys to fight a regime in Afghanistan because it was implementing the ideas of an old man with a long white beard, sitting crossed-legged in the mountains talking about Satan America?
.....
Not wanting to believe uncomfortable things until it is too late is a universal tendency.
Which is perhaps why Clarke's accusations are so happily greeted. Not just in terms of partisanship but for their simplicity. If 9/11 can be reduced to being Washington's fault, the irrational hate and destruction becomes almost manageable. Change administrations, and the Islamists will go away. Such a seductive, comforting thought echoes in most political battles and elections today. The wind from the east blows gritty grains of fear and delusion into the West's eyes. One wonders apprehensively, which way the zeitgeist of this new millennium will turn. Worse, one fears the calamity that will really turn it hasn't happened yet.
Do read the rest of the Amiel for details about some who tried to 'run against the wind' before 9/11 and the reception they got. I feel it's to the point here, also, to remind people that a large segment of what is referred to now loosely as anti-war opinion not only
would have opposed intervention in Afghanistan before 9/11, but
did oppose intervention in Afghanistan
after 9/11. Not all of it, I know. But a large segment. It strengthens the point made by Mount and Amiel. See also these
two Sunday Times
reports for relevant material; or - those of you without access - see
here and
here.