Ambiguous meanings in Zimbabwe

Everything about the power-sharing deal now being reported from Zimbabwe leaves us in the dark about its overall significance: whether it's a first, tentative opening towards a better future for the people of that country, freed from Robert Mugabe's malign grip; or is rather a holding operation by him and his cronies to cling on under pressure. Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC get to control the police, but Mugabe hangs on to the army. Further:

Under the agreement Mr Mugabe will remain President and chair the 31-member Cabinet. Mr Tsvangirai will be Prime Minister and head a council of ministers comprising all the Cabinet except Mr Mugabe and his two Zanu (PF) vice-presidents.

MDC officials said that the council would run the country day to day and formulate policy, while the Cabinet would help with implementation.

As the report goes on to spell out, it could depend on a power struggle to come. Maybe it is, in the terms of today's Times leader, both dawn and deception: dawn in the eyes of the MDC and deception by Mugabe. We shall see. In any event, when the Times suggests that the world 'must perhaps give some credit to Thabo Mbeki, whose diplomacy has at last yielded a result', I would myself want to accentuate the words 'perhaps' and 'at last'. One counterfactual we could think about is whether Zimbabwe could have been spared some of its most recent agonies had Mbeki's diplomacy and pressure taken a more robust form earlier on.