Preparing for the end of the world
In yesterday's Independent there was this alarming report:
The world has already passed the point of no return for climate change, and civilisation as we know it is now unlikely to survive, according to James Lovelock, the scientist and green guru who conceived the idea of Gaia - the Earth which keeps itself fit for life.Even after 'billions of us will die', you need to read the rest to see just how bad Lovelock thinks the prospect is. What I'm interested in commenting on here is not the overall prognosis, but just one aspect of Lovelock's view, namely, his remarks about what should now be done:In a profoundly pessimistic new assessment, published in today's Independent, Professor Lovelock suggests that efforts to counter global warming cannot succeed, and that, in effect, it is already too late.
The world and human society face disaster to a worse extent, and on a faster timescale, than almost anybody realises, he believes. He writes: "Before this century is over, billions of us will die, and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable."
In his book's concluding chapter, he writes: "What should a sensible European government be doing now? I think we have little option but to prepare for the worst, and assume that we have passed the threshold."For obvious reasons, and like all the rest of you, I hope Lovelock is wrong in what he foresees. But an extra reason for hoping that he's wrong is this: I don't see how any government could adopt the kind of approach (getting ready for catastrophe) that he urges. To try to stave it off, even if just hoping against hope - of this democratic electorates might be persuaded, as something they must support. But to convince people of the need to prepare for all but certain societal collapse, mass death, 'a broken rabble led by brutal warlords', etc., would surely be less easy. Even if it is now very late, a politics mobilizing hope rather than despair would have to be tried. (Thanks: L.)
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He goes on: "We have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain civilisation for as long as they can." He believes that the world's governments should plan to secure energy and food supplies in the global hothouse, and defences against the expected rise in sea levels. The scientist's vision of what human society may ultimately be reduced to through climate change is "a broken rabble led by brutal warlords."
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One of the most striking ideas in his book is that of "a guidebook for global warming survivors" aimed at the humans who would still be struggling to exist after a total societal collapse.Written, not in electronic form, but "on durable paper with long-lasting print", it would contain the basic accumulated scientific knowledge of humanity, much of it utterly taken for granted by us now, but originally won only after a hard struggle - such as our place in the solar system, or the fact that bacteria and viruses cause infectious diseases.