OK, it's time to announce the result of the normblog pundit event, and I'm calling it for Lee Spinks - with Lorenz Gude an honourable second. The margins of the Bush victory in, respectively, the popular vote and the share of electoral college votes was:
3.1% and 34
Lee and Lorenz both came within 0.1% of the first figure, predicting 3.2% (the nearest prediction on the lower side of 3.1 was 2.7); and Lee was spot on, with 34, for the difference in the electoral college. Lorenz didn't do at all badly, predicting 54.
As I promised in announcing the competition, they get honour (and a big cheer) for their foresight - or luck - and I'll be contacting them both about making a donation to a charity of their choice. A big cheer, please, for Lee Spinks and Lorenz Gude.